This project uses a systems dynamic and agent-based modeling approach to estimate the effectiveness of HIV prevention and substance-abuse interventions for criminal justice involved substance-using black men who have sex with men (BMSM). Using the dynamic features of the target population such as incarceration, health center, and activity data, this ABM will be applied to Harris TX, Los Angeles CA, and Cook County, Chicago IL. A goal for this ABM is to model HIV transmission and suppression probabilities at the individual level with the capability to parameterize the multiple network data sources available to investigators in each city based on specific transition periods of BMSM from the community, to jail, and back to the community.
The transient life "shocks" that impact this group lead to social and sexual network changes. New data on network shocks and HIV prevention and treatment utilization during these critical transition periods will also be used to simulate HIV prevention interventions within criminal justice contexts.
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